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For years, beauty marketing operated on a simple hierarchy: Instagram for aspiration, TikTok for virality, YouTube for tutorials. Reddit was an afterthought, a forum for anonymous complaints. That is changing rapidly.
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The Estée Lauder x Puig merger makes a lot of sense from a strategic point of view creating a fragrance powerhouse and creating a more geographically balanced group. Yet there are six risk that could kill this deal or kill the value after it closes.
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Estée Lauder is planning to make an offer on Puig at 18 to 19 euros per share which would be a premium of 3% to 9% at their current price of 17.4 euros. I believe there are five strategic reasons that make this deal rational.
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For the last four years Estée lived through one of the toughest stretches in modern prestige beauty with an average decrease in sales of nearly 7% per year.
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Shiseido reported Q1 26 net sales of €1.23bn (¥232bn), down 3% on a like-for-like basis versus the same period last year, yet core operating profit jumped 58% to €70m (¥13bn). The group is effectively trading near-term top-line for structural cost savings, and in Q1 at least, that trade is working.
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For years, beauty marketing operated on a simple hierarchy: Instagram for aspiration, TikTok for virality, YouTube for tutorials. Reddit was an afterthought, a forum for anonymous complaints. That is changing rapidly.
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This week in beauty, Coty sales continued to decline in the last quarter while dsm-firmenich saw strong demand for fine fragrance.
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LVMH does not disclose Sephora’s revenue, but the Selective Retailing division gives us enough to triangulate. The division reached €18.35bn in 2025, up just 2.6% reported and 4% organic, against €17.89bn in 2024.
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While 80% of Chinese consumers remain optimistic about the domestic economic outlook, per capita luxury expenditure is projected to contract by approximately 4% over the next twelve months according to data from a Kearney survey of 3,000 Chinese aspirational luxury shoppers conducted in 2025.
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Coty’s Q3 FY 26 results landed ahead of expectations, yet they underscored the operational strain the beauty group is working to address.